Does History Repeats it self....

During the recent past a lot has being said of history repeating itself with regard to the conflict of Sri lanka .Most of these examples were quoted by the pro LTTE  lobby(Liberation tigers of Tamil Elam –A banned terrorist organization in Sri Lanka, EU ,USA & India ) two of the most quoted are Stalingrad( WW2 battle) and the battle field reversals faced by the Sri Lankan Army (SLA) during ‘operation jayasikuru” period.  

 

I will not go in to an in-depth analysis of these battles but will emphasize on the similarities drawn with the Sri Lankan battle theater by the pro LTTE propagandists

 

Battle of Stalingrad (July 1942 & Feb 1943)

This was a world War 2 (WW2) battle fought  between Germany and the Soviet Union for the  control of the city of Stalingrad  this is considered as a  turning point of WW2 and is one of the bloodiest with casualties running in to well over 1.5 Mn  The German offensive trust to take Stalingrad, the battle inside the city and the devastating counter attack by the soviets which trapped and destroyed the 6th German army ..

The capture of Stalingrad was important to Hitler for the following reasons.

1.      Stalingrad was a major industrial city on a vital Main supply route (MSR ) between the Caspian sea & the northern Russia

2.      It will secure a flank for the German army on its way to Caucasus to cut off fuel lines to USSR

3.      The city bore the name of the ruler of USSR and is a vital propaganda opportunity

4.      Stalingrad was an industrial city if captured would be a blow to war machinery of USSR

 

The Battle formations of the German army and its allies has vulnerabilities due to thinly defended northern & southern flanks .Due to overstretching of its forces .And they were ill equipped to fight in the hard soviet winter.

 

The soviet counter attack

The red army counterattacked from the northern & southern boundaries of Stalingrad targeting the flanks of the German trust in a double envelopment and boxed the  6^th army destroying it comprehensively.

The double envelopment formations broke in to two o each front forming a defensive front to the outside of the city while attacking the boxed in 06th army on the interior of the city thus blocking reinforcements and reducing the enclave held by the 06^th army at the same time.Source: http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk/battle_of_stalingrad.htm

In the Sri Lankan context Parallels of the battle were drawn to the siege of Killinochchi by the Sri Lankan army and it was forecasted that LTTE would deal a crippling blow to the SLA as the USSR did to the Nazi Germany. The highlighted parallels to the battle of Stalingrad were

1.      Killinochchi was the de-facto capital of LTTE and is of more symbolic value than of any military value

2.      SLA attached a more significance to the fall of killinochchi (a wide publicity was given)

3.      The on setting monsoon & adverse weather conditions would reduce the effectiveness of the SLA while the LTTE would be operating on more familiar conditions to them.

4.      Urban l house to house close quarter fighting would render close air support and artillery support a non consideration due to vague line of controls

5.      The rubble and the urbanized nature would render the mechanized units of the SLA ineffective thus reducing the disadvantages to the LTTE

6.      Urban fighting would drag for long thus bogging down the SLA and leaving LTTE enough time to regroup & counter attack

 

This hypothesis was that Killinochchi would be Sri Lankan army’s Stalingrad but this was flawed from the beginning as to the numerical and technological superiority of the Sri Lankan defense forces(SLDF). In Stalingrad both the USSR & the German armies are evenly poised which resulted in advantageous positions were created due to weather conditions and superior strategy .How ever in the Sri Lankan case the SLDF had a clear advantage over strategy, Firepower, Numerical Strength & Air Superiority. It seems that this was mere psychological warfare by LTTE than close to reality. The actual ground situation prior to the battle of killinochchi was  

 

1.      The adverse weather conditions did not give a clear advantage to the LTTE both sides were affected equally while the SLDF with more resources came on top of the situation.

2.      SLA never left its flanks vulnerable and each division moved in clockwork precision in support of each other

 

3.      SLAF virtually had a monopoly in the skies and had the capability to hit strategic targets as well as tactical targets.

4.      SLDF made sure that the LTTE is not in a position to commit a larger number of fighters to the killinochchi front or to a significant counter attack by activating the national front (Muhamale & Nagarkovil) and pinning a considerable force of LTTE for the defense of the aforesaid..

5.      All though much hype was created by the SLDF about the eminent fall of killinochchi this appeared to be a diversionary tactic as battle formations in other sectors(Mullative -59 Division & Poonerin -58 division ) gained significant ground while the LTTE focused on defending killinochchi city . By the time LTTE realized this tactic and focused on other sectors both Mulathieve and poonarin were either threatened or run over by SLA during the confusion prevailed SLA laid siege to killinocchi as well LTTE’s response was to little too late. and was completely outfoxed by the movements of SLA  

6.      The military value of killinochchi is less when compared to paranthan which was a strategic gateway to the northern jaffna peninsula when the actual attack on paranthan came and was overrun by the SLA killinochchi began to fall automatically and SLA managed to overrun Killinochchi with out much resistance .This tactics aaoided a potential urban war situation for the SLA.

Finally the Stalingrad came but ironically it was LTTE’s Stalingrad not SLA’s .not at Killinochchi but in the battle for east  & south of puthukudirippu which  two text book style flanking attacks by the SLA trapped the major force of the LTTE boxing them and ultimately were wiped out like the 6^th German army in WW2  at Stalingrad.

 

Operation Jayasikuru -1997 may- 1998 may

The main objective of the Operation was to clear a land based MSR ( main supply route) to Jaffna and the military gains of the SLA of months  was reversed with in a few weeks by the LTTE with  devastating counter attacks which pushed the SLA to the brink of defeat trapping apx 50,000 in the jaffna peninsula which pave the way for the now infamous Norwegian brokered ceasefire(CFA).Iit was predicted that the same fate will befall on SLA when the LTTE counter attack at the appropriate time in the current offensive too .

 The troops advanced in narrow columns along he A9 ( Jaffna – kandy Road  leaving both their flanks vulnerable and overstretching the supply lines this weakness was exploited by LTTE by attacking  the middle of these advancing columns successfully cutting off supply lines which isolated the front some times for days until commando teams were able to re-link the formations & MSR .In the mean time isolated formations were hit badly and a large number perished .

But during the current face of the war SLA advanced not in columns but in larger wide fronts. and offensive divisions of the SLA moved in such a way that flanks of the each division are well protected thus drastically reducing the opportunity of a counter attack for the LTTE

In addition SLA always kept multiple fronts active which required LTTE to thin out its resources thus largely reducing its ability to concentrate its resources on a singular front (Which is a common tactic by LTTE).Inability to co-ordinate and operate multiple fronts  was the Achilles heal of LTTEand this vulnerability was exploited to the maximum by SLA by advancing along wider fronts in multiple theaters.

The small team tactics were extensively used to harass the LTTE and to conduct attrition war fare until the full brunt of the offensive came .Further this tactic minimized the SLA casualties since even if LTTE counter attacked large number of troops were not exposed.

Due to the above factors and many more logistical inconveniences the much publicized and expected counter attack by the LTTE never came.

An historic battle in Sri Lanka bears an undeniable resemblance to the current operation

Forget about Stalingrad, and operation Jayasikuru where the ground realities are far far from what we experience in Sri lanka today . It is noteworthy to examine the battle of king Vijayabahu the 1^st to drive out the cholas (A race of South Indian invaders ) which was fought on the same battle grounds of  northern & eastern parts of sri lanka, What similarities are there in a battle fought thousands of years ago .to a battle being fought now which is being fought with more destructive weapons, today we have a war which is fought on land, sea & air where as in the yester years it was mostly confined to sea and land .But it is said that what ever the technology ,what ever the tactics the final battle will be fought on the ground by infantry units or foot soldiers .historically it was the cavalry, elephant corps, and archers which played the supporting role for the foot soldiers today this supporting role is performed by the artillery regiments, mechanized infantry  divisions & armored corps. so where is the similarity, is it the battle tactics ? due to the introduction of the technology and new weapons battle tactics have undergone a drastic change but the undeniable and mind boggling similarity comes in the path taken by the Sri Lankan army of king Vijayabahu the 1^st  to defeat the cholas and the offensive trusts of the modern Sri Lankan army.

Kinh Vijayabahu sent 03 armies to defeat the cholas in polonnaruwa from ruhuna .The offensive started in 1069 AD he sent one army along the east cost up to mahathiththa (Present day mannar) to block reinforcements arriving from south india part of this army branched off to attack pollonnaruwaa.He send the 2^nd army across the country to attack pollonaruwa from the south .Them he sent the third army along the western cost to attack pollonnaruwa .the 03 armies boxed in the chola army from three directions at pollonnaruwa and in 1070  AD ,pollonnaruwa was overrun .

Here is the interesting part in the modern war  against the Tamil Tigers (LTTE ) the launching pad or the nerve centre of operations was vaunia .The Army General Sarath fonseka deployed three divisions in the main theater of war .58 division went along the western cost up to poonerin to secure and prevent any reinforcements coming in from south india. Part of this division branched off and went along route A35 to mullative .59 division went along the western cost to mulative while the 57 division went across the northern sri lanka via kilinochchi to mullative. These are the three main divisions used the rest of the divisions 55 & 53 played a defensive part for a major part of the battle and they were deployed in offensive roles  only during the latter part of the war 

The blue colour markings show the offensive path of the afore mentioned divisions and the green line shows the boundary at the start of the operations. Is this mere coincident or is it the way historically Sri Lankans found out as a feasible battle plan in driving out invaders from southern India .was the Sri Lankan General  following his great fore fathers in eliminating the terrorist threats from Sri Lanka. Its History in the making in Sri Lanka and but I would say history is indeed repeating.

 

References

Battle of Stalingrad –wikipedia

Operation Jayasikuru-Sri Lanka Army -wikipedia

King Viijayabahu 1-wikipedia

Photo credits belong to the original creators